December 31, 2013. Source: Science Daily
Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced according to new research published in Nature. Scientists found global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates.
The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.
“Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation,” said lead author from the University of New South Wales’ Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Prof Steven Sherwood.
“When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5°C to 5°C. This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3°C to 5°C with a doubling of carbon dioxide.”
This week’s “Earth Watch” segment on KPFK features Dr. Rachel Smolker, Co-director of Biofuelwatch, who weighs in on President Obama’s proposals on climate change in his State of the Union Address.
Filed under Bioenergy / Agrofuels, Climate Change, Climate Justice, Ending the Era of Extreme Energy, Energy, False Solutions to Climate Change, Forests, Forests and Climate Change, GE Trees, Green Economy, Indigenous Peoples, Land Grabs, The Greed Economy and the Future of Forests
Note: What happened to “It’s Global Warming, STUPID!” ??
–The GJEP Team
By Lananh Nguyen, Nov 12, 2012. Source: Bloomberg.com
IEA: US to Overtake Saudi Arabia in Oil Production
U.S. oil output is poised to surpass Saudi Arabia’s in the next decade, making the world’s biggest fuel consumer almost self-reliant and putting it on track to become a net exporter, the International Energy Agency said.
The U.S. met 83 percent of its energy needs in the first six months of this year, on track to be the highest annual level since 1991, according to Energy Department data. Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) — International Energy Agency Chief Economist Fatih Birol discusses global oil production, U.S. imports and renewable energy. He speaks with Francine Lacqua and Guy Johnson from London on Bloomberg Television’s “City Central.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Chart: Saudi Arabia Versus U.S. Crude Production
Growing supplies of crude extracted through new technology including hydraulic fracturing of underground rock formations will transform the U.S. into the largest producer for about five years starting about 2020, the Paris-based adviser to 28 nations said today in its annual World Energy Outlook. The U.S. met 83 percent of its energy needs in the first six months of this year, according to the Energy Department in Washington.
“The IEA outlook feeds into the idea of a shift in the center of influence in the world oil market,” said Gareth Lewis-Davies, an analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London. “Given Saudi Arabia is willing to shift production up and down it will retain a large degree of influence, and remain important as a price-influencer.”
by Bill Weinberg, November 4, 2012. Source: WW4 Report
Paul M. Barrett has made a splash (forgive the pun) on Bloomberg Businessweek with his piece (well on its way to meme-dom) “It’s Global Warming, Stupid.” He opens:
Yes, yes, it’s unsophisticated to blame any given storm on climate change. Men and women in white lab coats tell us—and they’re right—that many factors contribute to each severe weather episode. Climate deniers exploit scientific complexity to avoid any discussion at all.
Clarity, however, is not beyond reach. Hurricane Sandy demands it: At least 40 U.S. deaths. Economic losses expected to climb as high as $50 billion. Eight million homes without power. Hundreds of thousands of people evacuated. More than 15,000 flights grounded. Factories, stores, and hospitals shut. Lower Manhattan dark, silent, and underwater.
An unscientific survey of the social networking literature on Sandy reveals an illuminating tweet (you read that correctly) from Jonathan Foley, director of the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota. On Oct. 29, Foley thumbed thusly: “Would this kind of storm happen without climate change? Yes. Fueled by many factors. Is storm stronger because of climate change? Yes.” Eric Pooley, senior vice president of the Environmental Defense Fund (and former deputy editor of Bloomberg Businessweek), offers a baseball analogy: “We can’t say that steroids caused any one home run by Barry Bonds, but steroids sure helped him hit more and hit them farther. Now we have weather on steroids.” Continue reading
By Jeremy Lovell, August 7, 2012. Source: ClimateWire
HAMPTON COURT PALACE, England — First it was birds and now it is bees that are finding their numbers under increasing pressure from sources as diverse as habitat loss, insecticide use and changing weather patterns.
While many in the bird world are convinced that climate change is a major culprit for altering flowering times and therefore the relative abundance or lack of food sources, in the somewhat fustier apiarian world, the jury is out. Many, though, are willing to allow that climate change is likely to be a factor.
Honeybee colony losses have been 30 to 40 percent in the United Kingdom in the recent past and more than 60 percent in the United States.
By Stephen Leahy, August 6, 2012, Source: IPS News
At this Bonaire reef, the olive-green coral is alive, but the mottled-gray coral is dead. Credit: Living Oceans Foundation/IPS
CAIRNS, Australia, Jul 24 2012 (IPS) - Most corals thrive only in shallow waters, where there is enough light for them to grow. But the rapid rise in sea level, due to the melting of polar ice, is making these conditions increasingly scarce.
Measurements from tropical seas around the world reveal that the rise in sea level (3.3 mm/year) is happening at a faster rate than many corals have grown in the past 10,000 years, according to new research released at the 12th International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS).
“The Caribbean once had 60 percent coral cover, and that has now collapsed to 10 percent,” said Jeremy Jackson, professor emeritus at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California, in a special address to the symposium, held Jul. 9-13 in Cairns, Australia. “Corals are critical and endangered ecosystems.”
Sea-level rise is just one threat to corals, which have been decimated by overfishing, pollution, and bleaching from warmer sea temperatures due to climate change, Jackson added.
A colorful piece of coral is made up of thousands of tiny animals called polyps, which create cup-like limestone skeletons around themselves using calcium from seawater. Coral gets its beautiful colors from microalgae that live symbiotically with it.
Note: This appeared in the paper’s Business section. ‘Nuff said.
By Dana Hull, July 31, 2012. Source: San Jose Mercury News
Climate change is real and unfolding, and the outlook for California is bleak.
A series of state-sponsored scientific studies released Tuesday warns that California can expect more scorching heat waves, severe and damaging wildfires, emergency room visits and strain on the electric grid as the Earth continues to warm and sea levels rise along the state’s 1,100-mile long coast.
Higher temperatures in the next decade means that far more of the state’s 37 million people will depend on air conditioning–increasing demand for electricity by up to 1 gigawatt during hot summer months. One gigawatt is roughly the size of two coal-fired power plants and is enough energy to power 750,000 homes.
“The demand for electricity will increase as households operate existing air conditioners more frequently, and in many regions will install air conditioners where there currently are few,” read a report on residential electricity demand by Max Auffhammer of the University of California, Berkeley. “ZIP codes with a higher share of Latino population and less-wealthy households are projected to experience larger increases in consumption.”
The California Natural Resources Agency and the California Energy Commission jointly released “Our Changing Climate 2012,” a series of peer-reviewed scientific studies designed to help California prepare for and adapt to climate change. More than 25 research teams from the University of California and other academicinstitutions produced 34 peer-reviewed studies on everything from vulnerability of the agriculture industry in Fresno County to long-term wildfire risk.
Note: Evidence now linking global warming to ozone depletion. Yes, Virginia, everything is interconnected.
–the GJEP Team
Source: Harvard Magazine
A team of Harvard scientists led by Weld professor of atmospheric chemistry James G. Anderson announced today the discovery of serious and wholly unexpected ozone loss over the United States in summer. The finding,published in advance online on July 26 at Science’s Science Express website, is startling because the complex atmospheric chemistry that destroys ozone has previously been thought to occur only at very cold temperatures over polar regions where there is very little threat to humans. (A large hole in the ozone layer persists over Antarctica.) The discovery also links for the first time ozone loss (an issue around which world leaders successfully organized to ban chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs) to climate change (a global problem that has so far proven politically intractable).